89% of AI Search Has No Clear Winner: How Small Businesses Win Now

What Happened

For months, business owners and marketers have been grappling with a key question: Does traditional topical authority hold weight within conversational AI tools like ChatGPT, Gemini, and Perplexity? Specifically, does deep expertise in a niche provide a lasting edge, or can a generalist brand easily disrupt the market?

Growth expert Kevin Indig recently resolved this debate by analyzing six months of citation data from ChatGPT, courtesy of Semrush. This comprehensive study examined 1,094 U.S. business categories, over 50,000 brands, and more than 600,000 citations. The findings are clear: Topical authority is crucial in AI search, and it is characterized by its durability.

Once an AI model identifies a brand as a leading source for a specific topic, that brand tends to maintain its share of recommendations. However, the most striking revelation is that 89% of AI search categories currently lack a dominant player.

Key Details & Findings from the Study

To assess market dominance, the study categorized AI search results into three distinct tiers based on prompt performance:

• Clear Owner: One brand emerges in at least four out of five test prompts, leading its closest competitor by five percentage points or more.
• Emerging Leader: A brand leads at least three prompts but has not established a five-point gap over its rivals.
• Unsettled Category: No single brand leads in three out of five prompts.

The results were striking: nearly 9 out of 10 categories remain completely wide open.

Why AI Search Leads Are So Durable

AI models rely heavily on trusted source retrieval and the relationships between entities. Unlike traditional web searches that constantly re-index and re-rank millions of pages based on ever-changing algorithms, Large Language Models (LLMs) depend on stable training sets, web-retrieval indexes, and clear entity associations.

Once an AI engine firmly establishes that your business is the go-to authority for "boutique plumbing services in Austin" or "commercial insurance for organic farms," it will consistently cite your business in response lists. First movers who secure these positions gain a compounding advantage.

What It Means For Your Business

If you own a local or small-to-midsize business, this data highlights an unprecedented digital marketing opportunity reminiscent of the early days of Google SEO. Here’s why this moment is pivotal:

1. The Big Players Haven't Locked It Down Yet

Most national brands and local competitors are still primarily focused on traditional Google search rankings. They have yet to optimize their digital presence, structured data, or citation ecosystems for AI search engines (also known as Generative Engine Optimization or GEO). With 89% of categories unsettled, your small business can outpace larger competitors simply by acting swiftly.

2. Depth Trumps General Content

AI engines favor depth over breadth. Rather than spreading your resources thin across various unrelated services, small businesses that concentrate on specialized offerings will gain quicker recognition from AI. By developing thorough, hyper-relevant content around your core expertise, you signal to LLMs that your brand is the authoritative source in your niche.

3. The Window Will Close

The durability of AI search citations means that delaying your optimization for AI tools like ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Google AI Overviews will make it increasingly difficult to catch up later. As more brands recognize the value of AI recommendations, the opportunity presented by the 89% unsettled market will diminish rapidly.

How to Claim Your Category Before the Window Closes

To seize this open landscape, local and small businesses should act immediately:

• Build Deep Niche Content: Create detailed guides, FAQs, and case studies that elucidate your industry solutions and service areas.
• Optimize Entity Data: Ensure that your business name, address, services, and structured markup (Schema.org) are consistent across review platforms, local directories, and your website.
• Earn High-Trust Citations: AI tools favor businesses that are cited by reputable third-party sources, news outlets, industry blogs, and verified customer review platforms.
• Track Your AI Visibility: Keep an eye on how ChatGPT, Gemini, and Perplexity respond to prompts related to your local market and primary service categories.

At VisibilityAI, we specialize in guiding local businesses to establish their topical authority before competitors close in. By tailoring your brand's digital presence for AI engine consumption, you can ensure your business is recommended when potential customers seek advice from AI.

Why It Matters

For small business owners and marketers, this study demonstrates that AI search is not a territory reserved for companies with vast enterprise budgets. With 89% of AI search categories unsettled, small businesses have a unique opportunity to claim significant visibility before national brands or local competitors catch on to Generative Engine Optimization (GEO).

Moreover, the study underscores that AI citations operate on a 'winner-take-most' principle. Since LLMs prioritize established entity relationships and trusted topical sources, securing an early lead can provide durable long-term positioning. Once an AI engine recognizes your business as the definitive local authority, maintaining that recommendation becomes much easier than attempting to displace an incumbent later.

Businesses that optimize their structured data, local entity profiles, and niche topical depth now stand to capture a substantial share of high-intent AI search traffic as consumer search habits shift permanently from traditional search engines to conversational AI assistants.